What do Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Washington, and Vermont have in common?
Each of these states have experienced a decline in in the new number of deaths from COVID-19 reported one week earlier.
Here is a chart that shows the change in the number of deaths reported each day from the deaths reported seven days ago, relative to each day on the y-axis, and the total number of deaths reported for each state on the x-axis. The significance of this, if my understanding is correct, is that epidemiologists can use this to help determine the strength/momentum of an epidemic when the number of deaths from the epidemic are increasing exponentially.
My goal with sharing this information is to highlight states, communities, and countries that seem to be experiencing a change in the statistics for the better. I understand that epidemiologists normally use confirmed cases, not deaths; however, it is my opinion that COVID-19 has spread far beyond the numbers of the people that have been tested. However, I will switch, If someone can convince me as to why the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is a more correct data point to model from than deaths.
I've attached two charts that show these changes, one chart with all the states I mentioned, and one chart without the state of Washington for reasons that you can see in the charts.
Chart 1: All 8 States
As you can see from Chart 1, there is so much more data from the state of Washington that it dwarfs all the other states. I will try not to speculate to much but it seems that there have been so many more cases of COVID-19 in Washington because it was one of the first and hardest hit when the SARS-CoV2 virus landed on shores of the US.
To help see the data for the other states, here is the same chart minus the data from the state of Washington.
Chart 2: Just 7 States
OK, this is still confusing so here is the chart for each state starting with Vermont, the state, from these 7 that have reported the most deaths per person. As shown in this Chart 3
Chart 3
Vermont:
Chart 4
Washington:
Chart 5
Montana:
Chart 6
Oregon
Chart 7
Nebraska
Chart 8
NorthCarolina
Chart 9
I sincerely hope that these states really do see a sustained reductions in the number of new deaths reported every day, week over week, from COVID-19, that this information helps people commit to being part of the solution, and that there are real reasons the disease has not progressed in these states as it has in others.
If anyone is wondering if I cherry-picked these states, I have not. I have the same data Johns Hopkins is using to report on.
Less than a month ago, COVID-19 was something really bad happening somewhere else; however, it was clear that it would touch us soon. That day has arrived and COVID-19 is in every state, and likely in every country, I think.
